Iran: Peace on Paper, War in Waiting. 

Halima Younis – Exclusive to Dubai Diplomacy

The Trump administration says a deal with Iran is close. Whatever form it takes, a 20-year freeze on the nuclear program, some kind of partial rollback, anything Washington can call a win, do not be fooled. It will not be peace. It will be a postponement.

The biggest confrontation with Iran is still ahead. The only question is when.

Iran’s ruling ideology has not changed and will not change. The Islamic Republic was built on a specific Shiite revolutionary vision: oppose America, destroy Israel, weaken the West, and undermine Sunni Arab governments across the region. That is not a policy position, it is the foundation of the regime’s identity. You cannot negotiate that away. You can only delay it.

And a weakened Iran is still a dangerous Iran. Leave the regime in place, give it time and breathing room, and it will rebuild. The missiles will come back. The nuclear ambitions will return. History says so.

Think about what happened with Iraq. In 1991, President George H.W. Bush stopped U.S. forces south of Baghdad. He did not remove Saddam Hussein. At that moment, Iraqis, especially the Shia in the south, were cheering for America, hoping for liberation. Instead, U.S. forces withdrew. Saddam crushed the uprising that followed and massacred thousands. Iraqis felt betrayed, and they remembered.

By the time George W. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003 and toppled Saddam, the welcome was gone. The moment had passed. A different president had to finish a war his father left unresolved, but under far worse conditions.

The same pattern will repeat with Iran. If not during Trump’s term, then under the next president. Someone will eventually have to fight the war that a deal today only pushes down the road.

The Gulf states know this. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and their neighbors have watched Iran fund militias, fire missiles, and threaten shipping lanes. They know there is no real peace story between the Gulf and Tehran.

The UAE in particular suffered significant damage from Iran attacks. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil flows, remains Iran’s most powerful economic weapon. Closing it, or even threatening to close it, sends oil prices soaring and rattles global markets.

And yet Qatar, which is supporting and hosting various Islamist extremist factions, is now sending a negotiating team to Tehran to help secure a US-Iran deal, even after Iran struck Qatar with missiles and drones and banned Qatari ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

A country that was attacked by Iran is now lobbying on its behalf. That is not diplomacy. That is kneeling before the king and kissing the hand of Iran.

Iran is not a normal state that can be negotiated back into the international community with the right incentives. It is more like a militia with a flag, a gang with nuclear ambitions. And here is the hard truth about that: Iran is not like a snake that dies when you cut off its head. It is more like a flatworm, a planarian, capable of regenerating from even a tiny fragment. Sanction it, isolate it, weaken it. It waits. Then it grows back.

Any deal that leaves the regime intact means years of instability for the Gulf region. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and the broader UAE have built themselves into global hubs for business, tourism, and investment. But all it takes is one threatening statement from Tehran, one missile alert, one drone headline, and the confidence evaporates again. Investors leave. Tourists cancel. The damage is real even when the missiles never land.

If a deal happens, do not call it peace. Call it a pause. The harder reckoning is simply being delayed, and history suggests it will arrive under worse circumstances, with higher costs.

Halima Younis, political analyst.

All views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of DubaiDiplomacy or its editors.

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